Corn, soybean carryover guesses falling fast


Corn, soybean carryover guesses falling fast

U.S. corn and soybean ending stocks projections have rapidly gotten tighter since the first set of estimates were released in May.

Allendale’s Chief Strategist Rich Nelson tells Brownfield crop loss and stronger than expected demand have cut the guesses for both crops by about 50% and there’s no real frame of reference, “These are wildly different than we expected at the start of the year and certainly quite different than what we expected as recently as June, and no we don’t have a good amount of historical precedence for this. There are certainly still a lot of questions still in front of us here.”

Initially, the USDA was projecting 2020/21 U.S. corn ending stocks at 3.318 billion bushels with soybeans at 405 million bushels, while November’s update had corn at 1.702 billion bushels and beans at 190 million. The current marketing year for beans and corn runs through the end of August 2021. Corn ended 2019/20 at 1.995 billion bushels and soybeans finished last marketing year at 523 million.

Ahead of December’s report, Allendale expects corn ending stocks to hold and sees beans falling another 40 million bushels to 150 million.

The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out Thursday, December 10th at Noon Eastern/11 Central.

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