Pork a key indicator of China’s import plans
A market analyst is keeping a close eye on Chinese purchases of U.S. pork.
Mike Zuzolo with Global Commodity Analytics says the best indicator of what China plans to do amidst its phase one trade commitments and the coronavirus outbreak remains in the pork sector.
“When you look at the fact that USDA last week showed Chinese consumption domestically is going to be short almost 16 million tons for pork. And the exports that we and other countries can ship out, even if we ramp up strongly, is going to be around 11 million tons.”
That still leaves China nearly five million tons short of domestic consumption needs, he says.
“And this is up against already having almost 21 percent food price inflation. So the easiest way for China to cool their price inflation is to import more pork and beef.”
Because of that, Zuzolo tells Brownfield U.S. exports in 2020 will be led by proteins.
He says that will help feed grains, soybean meal, and DDG’s as well.